This forum must have an effect.......

Since joining up i have got back to winning ways

a couple of final tables in the late night $5 & $10 F/O and 16th in the $30 rebuy all on ipoker.....

i am not usually one to brag but )
anyways justed wanted to say thanks.....

My last hand in the $10 buck...

We had played about 4-5 hands on the FT

Im in SB with 51K blinds are 2.5 and 5K
UTG with around 70-80K raise to 20K (he had made a similar bet with an A8os a few hands before)
all fold round to me i have AQs....

Do you

A) stay out of trouble and fold
B) Raise all in....

I went all in, thinking he could lay down or I am prob in a coin flip...

anyhow he duly calls and his pocket 10's never got troubled

be interested to hear your thoughts...

p.s. looking forward to sundays forum game!

Si

Meh, I would probably done the same to be frank.

Glad the forum seems to be having a positive effect on your game my friend, hang around and I am sure it will continue.

Ul, I'd have folded, with the very limited info you've given, but only because I hate not being the aggressor and I hate AQ with an absolute passion!

I'm glad to see the forum's improving your game though - gl!

Great to hear Frustratedwithsuckouts (Henceforth to be renamed FWS for the sake of laziness), hope the run continues

Whats your alias on ipoker?

UL in the $30 rebuy, could of been a big cash there, it's quite a decent prize pool that one (25k?), but still, it pays for a few more shots at it im sure

As for the 10 frz...

What are the other table stacks?

If there's a few very short (moving 3 places up the pay scale with a bit of patience is usually worth it), or if 50k odd put you 2nd/3rd I'd definitely be more tempted to stay out of his way.

If there were a lot of bigger stacks, and 1 or 0 zero very short, then I'd be a lot more tempted to get them all in now.

If you'd been on 30k or less I'd of definitely been all in regardless of shorties.

You say he made a similar raise with A8 previously...

Now although this does point to his opening range being pretty wide it doesn't automatically point to it being wide enough to shove over him everytime. Also of importance is his calling range.

Say for example he raises from there to 20k with any pair, any ace, KQ, and KJs. (note that this isn't always going to be true, fo all we know A8 might be at the bottom of his raising range, and he only raises A8+ and any pair.)

Now also presume he calls you're all in with his entire raising range - A2+ 22+ KQ, KJs+.

In this case pokerstove tells us...

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.044% 57.61% 03.44% 225889143 13476978.50 { AcQc }
Hand 1: 38.956% 35.52% 03.44% 139274516 13476978.50 { 22+, A2s+, KJs+, A2o+, KQo }

Which basically means youre 61% favourite, and means you should probably lump them all in unless there are 3 or more very-shorties, or you're 2nd/3rd.

0.61*60k gain
0.39*51k loss

16k gain on average, 1/3 of your stack, not too bad.

Now however consider he raises the same range, but folds unless he has A10s+, AJos+, 88+ (A more reasonable assumption) pokerstove says...

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.791% 40.16% 06.63% 49510809 8175928.50 { AcQc }
Hand 1: 53.209% 46.58% 06.63% 57423222 8175928.50 { 88+, ATs+, AJo+ }

making him a 53% favourite, when he calls with his new tighter range.

his raising range of A2os+, 22+ KQ, KJs is about 21% of his total hands, and his new calling range is about 7%, ie a third of his raising range.

so....

33% of the time - you get called,
of which
53% you lose 51k and go out
47% you gain 60k(ish)

66% of the time you gain 30k (ish)

doing all the mathsy bits...

0.33 * ( (0.53*-51) + (0.47*60) )
+ 0.66*30k

= a tad over 20k

This means that if you played this hands thousands and thousands of times, with him having very wide opening range, but calling on a slightly tighter range, as specified, you would on average expect to win 20k on the hand.

This is clearly a great result, so if our opponent is playing according to those ranges, it's a defnite shove.

So, so far, if he's v.loose raising, and v.loose calling, it's a shove, with you winning 16k on average (around a third of your stack, well worth a go)

And if he's v.loose raising, but tighter calling its a 21k average win per hand.

Note however that with the first option you are going out 39% of the time - so if there are a few shorties (dont concern yourself with moving up one place due to one shorty, but 3 is worth it) then you should probably fold.

In the second option, you only go out around 16% of the time, so regardless of shorties it's a definite shove.

Also the second option is a more likely scenario than the 1st, as even the loosest of raisers won't call off 30k more with A5 etc.

---------

Now however, let's assume A8 is right at the bottom of his raising range, and he only raises say A8s+, A9os+, and 66+ (Im going to assume he limps 55 or lower)

If he calls with everything he raises with....

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.910% 47.86% 05.05% 88498503 9347605.50 { AcQc }
Hand 1: 47.090% 42.04% 05.05% 77735118 9347605.50 { 66+, A8s+, A9o+ }


so now you're only a 53% favourite.

.52*60k gain
.47*51k loss
=7.23k

only a 7k gain overall, and you're out 47%, almost half the time.

What about if he raises the same A8s+, A9os+, 66+ range, but now is tighter calling, and only calls with say AJos+, A10s+ and 99+?

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.791% 40.16% 06.63% 49510809 8175928.50 { AcQc }
Hand 1: 53.209% 46.58% 06.63% 57423222 8175928.50 { 88+, ATs+, AJo+ }

he is now a 53% favourite when he calls.

his raising range is 10.4% of hands, and his calling range is 7.1% of hands, about 68% of his raising range.

68% he calls
of which
47% you win 60k
53% you lose 51k

32% he folds you win 30k

0.68 * ( (0.47*60) + (0.53*-51) )
+0.32*30
=10.77

Only a 10k average gain per hand, with you going out 36% of the time. Not really great, a fold in my book.

Better than if he calls his entire raising range, but still much worse than the original loose raising range.

---------

So, hopefully this illustrates how important it is to have a good idea of how youre opponent is playing, one hand is not quite enough evidence for an all in by the maths.

summation...
If oppo:

Raises wide (A2+,22+KJs+) & calls same = unlikely, ok ish shove, 16k gain, out 40%
Raise wide (A2+,22+,KJs+) & call tighter = great shove, 20k gain, out 16%
Raises tighter (A8s+a9os+66+) % calls same = Awful shove, 7k gain, out 46%
Raises tighter calls even tighter (AJos+,A10s+,99+) = borderline bad shove, 10k gain, out 36%

Couple of other points...

Although the shove is ALWAYS a positive ev move based on these results, it is often a bad shove due to how often you go out in comparison to the average chip gain.

What happenend in the A8 hand? If he lost a lot of chips, ran into a bigger ace, etc, he may have tightened up, if he won the blinds, or a nice pot, he may be even looser.

What stack is bb sat on? Does he cover us? About 2.5% of the time he wakes up with AA KK QQ AK and calls, leaving us in trouble....

if any of the above makes no sense, please feel free to say, it may be a mistype, this is too long to proof read LOL.

good cards to you....

and yes, this is a f'ing long reply, but i have to put my maths degree to use at least once a year...

Oh and forgot to mention, with no other info on guy except for A8 previously, I'm going for a fold. I might be swayed by what had happened in the A8 hand tho.

wildrick wrote:so....

33% of the time - you get called,
of which
53% you lose 51k and go out
47% you gain 60k(ish)

Here is were I needed to go and get a coffee....

That was pretty much what I was going to say.



edit to add : trust Bainn to get in the way at the last second!

Great post, Rick and thanks for doing the odds bit - I can't access them at work.

It's good to see your analysis down on paper (so to speak) as too freuqently people (especially some other chit forum where I don't post!) underestimate your ability as a mathematician. Sharon understands it now why people call em a mupp when I snap call them with a substandard hand in the right situation (in my mind). Khenny called me a feel player; it's nothing to do with that really, although I do talk myself out of it sometimes. The reason IO make my decisions the way I do is because my head (just like yours I know) has worked out all the odds (roughly) pot/implied/muff/stacks remaining etc in the time it's taken the opponent to put their chips in.

I may be called a muff, but I guarantee you I could turn away from the table and tell that said muff exactly what and why I did it.

I'm not going to though, as I'm sick of knocking the tank! Gl at the tables guys, and keep up the good work Rick. Did you ever finish your project btw? I'd be more than happy to help you if you haven't and you decide you'd like to.

hey Rick,

as ever a really interesting bit of analysis....

The annoying thing with ipoker is it doesnt keep a decent hand history...... so apologies for not getting all the info....

alias on ipoker is izzard69 (if you sharkscope me it tells lies as iit reandomly missed out some significant cashes )

to be brutally honest as i had done quite well in the other 2 I thought meh - prob a 50/50 to get into 2nd or third.... i was sat prob 6th with a couple high a couple on 50ishk and a couple around 30ish

The money didnt accelerate that much till top 3, and i thought i would give myself a decent shot at those... i think if it had been my only FT then maybe more inclined with the fold.... (i know this isnt good logic but it was late and i should have been studying as opposed to playing poker)

anyhow i will digest your analysis in slower time...

Thanks again
FWS (aka Si)

MADV wrote:Great post, Rick and thanks for doing the odds bit - I can't access them at work.

It's good to see your analysis down on paper (so to speak) as too freuqently people (especially some other chit forum where I don't post!) underestimate your ability as a mathematician. Sharon understands it now why people call em a mupp when I snap call them with a substandard hand in the right situation (in my mind). Khenny called me a feel player; it's nothing to do with that really, although I do talk myself out of it sometimes. The reason IO make my decisions the way I do is because my head (just like yours I know) has worked out all the odds (roughly) pot/implied/muff/stacks remaining etc in the time it's taken the opponent to put their chips in.

I may be called a muff, but I guarantee you I could turn away from the table and tell that said muff exactly what and why I did it.

I'm not going to though, as I'm sick of knocking the tank! Gl at the tables guys, and keep up the good work Rick. Did you ever finish your project btw? I'd be more than happy to help you if you haven't and you decide you'd like to.

Hey Vad. When I called you a feel player it was meant as a compliment m8 and I hope you took it that way. I consider myself to be a feel player also.

I'm a pretty well educated guy with a good knowledge on many subjects but I have always struggled with Maths. My dad was a freakin genius when it came to it but I didn't inherit that gene at all!

All that being said I can be in a hand and know if I am in a good or bad position odds wise. It's an important part of the game no doubt but there are so many facets to poker that if you are deficient in one but proficient in others it will balance out. Without knowing odds to a certain percentage it's still enough for most situations to know if you are a 2/1 dog or a 3/1 fav. Or whether calling off is giving you the correct PO or EV.

The other thing I probably should have said is that although I still class you as a feel player I think you are probably very efficient when it comes to things maths related and would have no problems working out particular odds percentage wise where I would definitely struggle.

I did take it as a compliment, Khenny. You didn't need to respond with the post you did but if you felt you did, then my post didn't come across right and I should have revisited the English in the text.

I do play on feel, you're right, but it's odds based feel lol!

n1 FWS, wpwp! And yes this is very much a winning game mentality forum! (it does help that there's some class players about...)