100nl situation

Hmm what would you think and do ?

Insight: The guy is a flatter pre, stats at the time were 28/1 only over 190 hands, he was 189euros down over these 190 hand (over 2 sessions) and runs a zero Cbet rating,

** Hand # 2422575642 starting - 2009-02-15 13:29:43
** Kangaroo Paw [Hold 'em] (0.50|1.00 NL - Cash Game) Real Money

danrod020269 sitting in seat 1 with €159.95
lBl sitting in seat 2 with €87.16
QuickerDraw sitting in seat 3 with €96.53[Dealer]
Evo397bhp sitting in seat 4 with €222.58
zorynar sitting in seat 5 with €121.27
Philip5767 sitting in seat 6 with €104.95
peponee sitting in seat 7 with €60.90
Gtan sitting in seat 8 with €117.18
arthur196 sitting in seat 9 with €10.50
donkeyno1 sitting in seat 10 with €99.00
Evo397bhp posted the small blind - €0.50
zorynar posted the big blind - €1.00

** Dealing cards to Evo397bhp: ,
Philip5767 called - €1.00
peponee folded
Gtan folded
arthur196 folded
donkeyno1 folded
danrod020269 folded
lBl called - €1.00
QuickerDraw folded
Evo397bhp called - €1.00
zorynar checked

** Dealing the flop: , ,
Evo397bhp checked
zorynar checked
Philip5767 checked
lBl checked

** Dealing the turn:
Evo397bhp checked
zorynar checked
Philip5767 checked
lBl checked

** Dealing the river:
Evo397bhp bet - €2.00
zorynar folded
Philip5767 raised to €10.00
lBl folded
Evo397bhp raised to €34.00
Philip5767 went all-in - €93.95
Evo397bhp ????

My own image at this table at the time was 11/11 over 100 hand session so far, had just taken a Shortstack shove beat for 82Euro pot with AKs on dry flop and SS had 66

thoughts and reasons please

Personally, my only fold is a mis-click so it has to be a call imo 100% of the time.

My thoughts? He has limped with a raggy ace, is new to the game and thinks he has the nuts.

If he has 6-7 it is one of those things, but in cash I really think folding here would be a massive error no matter what the outcome is.

im going for a call here, thinking mbe he has 66, and figures youre unlikely to have another 6?

or as rich said he could be a numpty with A-rag.

well glad i'm not way out there on my thought line.

Evo397bhp called - €103.95
Philip5767 shows: 6h, 7d
Evo397bhp mucks: 6s, 8c
Philip5767 wins €208.90 from the main pot

the guy is now 26.7Vpip and 0.7 PFL over 749 hands and back to -175euro.

where do these people learn to play !!

I LIKE HIM

fold pf

Overated wrote:fold pf

To be honest m8t I would 99.9% of the time but from the SB with 7:1 on my money i like the small 1 gappers, although to be fair not in 100nl as this low there are to many wild/weird crads played.

I read him for AT+ 22-66 range, so my thoughts were out of his posible range only the 66 gave a split, money had to go in... the 67o was lets say more than a shock

I thought after the hand, that maybe he was just mixing his game up, but after playing a further 500+ hands against him i've changed that thought, and he just plays weird/pos, I like him and wathched him drip bleed chips to the table (myself included) for a further 3hr's.

Hi Evo. I just signed up to say this.

I don't mind completing the SB at all. Checking down is standard; so there's nothing to criticise except for the river.

There's no value in 3-betting the river at all. Leading out is standard here so fair enough the €2 bet but once he raises to €10, why do you go on to 3-bet him? He either has the same straight, a higher straight, or a hand that anyone (no matter how bad) would muck to a 3-bet on that river.

What I'm trying to say is that your 3-bet is only getting called by a CHOP or the higher straight which is all -EV as a chop would just get you raked more by 3-betting. I hope this helps.

Pates, you don't think it possible that someone would have limped pre-flop with a raggy ace and would be willing to call a river bet?

In my limited experience, there are very few players that would fold an ace in this situation.

$60 to win $120, you have to be right 33%+ of the time to break even.

Now, at higher limits when all your opponents have a good understanding of the game and you all understand each others images, this scenario is simple as it has been checked down and there is no money in the pot. You bet out $2 whether for value or bluff, then the other guy makes it $10...based on metagame you can make it $34 for thin value from an Ace if your image allows that. But when you raise to $34 you have to be clear in your head that it is only for value and if you are repopped you are folding. Often similar situations arise where you have a very strong hand on the river and you can call knowing you have the best hand the majority of the time, or you can raise for the few times you get paid off. But when those tilty moments occur when you are repopped and it is clear due to board texture, betting patterns, previous street plays and various images and stats then you must forget the relative strength of your hand and release it.

Now, as this is a 100nl game and you have very little info on your opponent it does look to be an easy call. However, when you mention that he is a 27/1 it means he elects to see flops before putting more money into the pot. Therefore, over 200 hands it is fair to say he is not raising PF with 10-10-QQ and AQs and maybe even AKs. Someone who is that tight isn't going to be throwing in 100bb PF lightly. On the river, in my experience he is not going to be showing up with a bluff or an Ace enough times to make this a profitable call.

I think 3b to 34$ is fine as long as you realise why you are raising to 34 and are able to fold to a 4b. Yes, sometimes he will have just the 6 like you, and once in a blue moon he'll have the ace, but something like 1/80 times. Not enough to make it the right call here.

Like the reply John.

Can I just ask though with the limited information on the player here, ...

If you were in this situation and had to make a fast decision (on ipoker I believe it is approx. 3.79 seconds),...

Would you call or fold?

richlizard wrote: (on ipoker I believe it is approx. 3.79 seconds

and yeah, great reply John m8

Maybe I'm just nitting it up on the river a bit then. Is it really possible to fold to this guy after 3-betting to €34? There might be some value to 3-bet this against an Ax but anything else he has is just costing you.

Whenever I've had the 2nd nuts on a 4 card straight, I've tended towards not letting the pot get out of control. I think there's better spots to get into than shipping it in largely for a chop and if not for a cooler.

I like John's advice and I think a very disciplined player can make the fold after the raise; I just don't think I could.

Nice response John, and my stat range was far to low on this guy "at the time" to take the 4 bet line, but the stats I missed out was showdown 65% wonatshowdown 10.3% so this rightly or wrongly lead me to believe he was chasing the A straight.

Pates, no as a rule I'd be calling this down and not 3betting him, with such a small sample range but I'd marked the guy in my head as a nice ATM touch, although this and the small sample range lead me to be far to eager and get it in with him "at almost any small edge"

Once I'd made it 34 to be honest I'd already taken the line of calling any 4bet or shove he was going to make.

My saving grace on this hand is since this time I have recouped the bet + from this player although he's backed of from running HU with me now a little around hand 500+ in graph and have a far better range on his stats and would like to see him move up levels soon, although his game will change no doubt.

I know it is hypothetical, but...

If you had just flat called his raise on the river and not reraised to €34, and he then turns over A9o...

Would this have been considered an error on your part?

I know the phrase 'hindsight is a wonderful thing' and all that can be used fairly liberally, but I wonder if it really is a valid case to use it here?

If he had flipped a rag A, while winner the pot I'd have second guessed my self and while not really backing away from the action as such would certainly be questioning future HU confrontations with this player, and quite frankly given him far to much credit on further hands.

Which brings up a very interesting quandary, at which point does a call behind or not, turn into value on image,info & EV for future hands ?

In this case proved good value but..... ?

sorry it's been some time since i posted this reply, can't remember if this was a HU match or ring. Im pretty sure it was ring game, so based on that, given its 0.5-1nl (even though there are some v good players at 0.5-1 we have to assume that the general knowledge at this limit is highly limited and erring on the side of stupidity) , plus multitabling plus no time bank on ipoker it is a very easy call. Just unlucky he had the nut nut. I think flat calling is definitely a mistake as you are losing some value, how much value you are losing im not sure as it is difficult to get called by worse when the pot started off so small on the river, just seems very odd for someone to want to go mad at it and bluff or misrank their hand so badly.

Im guessing this wasn't very coherent, i've got too many tables open at the moment so can't concentrate on typing here sorry. Will reread and repost after i finish later tonight.

gl

Was ring John, and "knowledge at this limit is highly limited and erring on the side of stupidity" is the under statement of the year, and why i find the level can reap good money or some interesting situ's

glgl tonight