Live tourny hand...

my m8 (a cash player) just rang to ask whether i thought he played this right, its an interesting one.

80 runner £35 frz, 9 paid, 4 remaining, payouts 850, 550, 350, 250 ish.

blinds 1.5/3k, for at least another 15-20 mins.

stacks:

1st pos - 15k
button - 75k
sb - 20k
my m8 bb - 40k

shorty folds, chippy raises to 10k from button. sb ships all in. you have 1010 in the bb, what your move?

My opinion... for starters the flat call is a bad move, half your stack, with a chance of chippy calling or reraising, and 70% chance of oc on flop.

So fold or shove.

personally i like a fold here for a few reasons...

a) theres a guy with 5 bbs in the bb next hand
b) your'e risking half your stack at the very least
c) because of the size of raise and push, if you fold chippy HAS to call the all in for 10k more, so you can fold knowing that theres a reasonable chance someone goes out here. Also chippy knows this to be the case, so his range for raising half shorties stack will be a bit tighter, if he raises 7k, perhaps he can fold to shorty, so his range is a bit wider.
d) the blinds arent that high, theres still plenty of play left without risking a 3 way all in, with the shortest player at table already folded.

looking at the possible outcomes...

if you fold - either chippy wins, and your 3 way with one very short stack, and a great shot at getting heads up and going for win, or shorter guy wins, in which case everyone even ish apart from 15k guy.

if you shove - you can get called and lose and be out 3rd or 4th, win and have 100k, or lose to shorty but win sidepot and be back on 40k. Or chippy folds and you have either 20k with 4 left, or 70k with 3 left.

only one of these results from shoving is signifcantly better than the folding option, and its the least likely. Taking the results from folding, neither of them leave you in bad shape at all, with plenty of time left to go for the win.

Anyway, my m8 makes a brave shove, chippy has AK and makes the call, shorty has AJ, K hits, A, J or 10 dont, and m8y is out in 3rd by stack.

Nice result tho Pol m8, and wp. I dont think the shove is bad by any means, i think its quite close between shove or fold and theres arguements for either. If it was 3 better players than me, id happily shove and take the flip, but if its just some random casino guys id rather try and out play them and play a few flops etc.

After thinking on this rick... as they were both sharing cards which whilst unknown is a good possibility here, does it make the TT even more of a favourite??

well yeah it makes 1010 the favourite, but the %s are

1010 45%
AK 34%
AJ 21%

so althought youre favourite out of the 3, its still more likely that either one of your opponents will win, as apposed to you winning - as one of your oppos will win 55% of the time.

Also, this was pretty much best case scenario, apart from crazy things like 2 under pairs, same hand for both oppos etc.

If you could see the oppos cards in this case youd prob get them in, with a coin flip to take a big stack, but its still not an automatic call even with that knowledge

at first i thought i was shoving here all day long, but after a bit of thought i'm getting more convinced a fold is good... interesting one tho.

Only 800 quid for first?

lol at anyone who folds this. Especially 4 handed

Overated wrote:Only 800 quid for first?

lol at anyone who folds this. Especially 4 handed

doesnt matter if its "only" 800 for 1st, its still more than 3 times 4th place, and youve entered and played this long you may as well take it seriously... That said im not sure i fold here, but theres no need to belittle a £850 first place - far more than youve ever won in a live game im sure...