WWYD

I am deep in an big Sunday night mtt, its a £100 rebuy with 3 hours of rebuys and a very good guarantee. There are around 50 left and I am on a pretty loose table.
I have been fairly inactive (for me), I have 180k stack and my opponent has 165k blinds are 4-8k no ante.

I get 77 on the cutoff and raise to 21200, sb thinks and flat calls bb folds. The flop comes AdQd2d I have the 7d. The sb donk bets 34500 into what is now just under 50k pot leaving himself about 100k.

WWYD?

snip

yeah i'm out here as well, his range includes tomany cards that cover you, and peeling one could bring a world of pain on the turn IMO

bit out of my league, im tempted to say shove, but id probably bottle it and fold. Theres no way im flat calling really.

More importantly tho...

phinnies1 wrote:with 3 hours of rebuys

?????????????? where on earth are you getting 3 hours of $100 rebuys??????????

Davejacks wrote:bit out of my league, im tempted to say shove, but id probably bottle it and fold. Theres no way im flat calling really.

More importantly tho...

phinnies1 wrote:with 3 hours of rebuys

?????????????? where on earth are you getting 3 hours of $100 rebuys??????????

ECOOP probably

This is on a foreign site, very soft.

I am only asking what would you think is the correct decision for you to make, to make it a positive EV move.

I will tell you what I did and my thought process.

Deep in these tourneys you have to try and get into your opponents head and ask yourself why is he doing a certain thing.

I raise pre flop with a genuine hand in position and he takes the clock to call me.
That tells me a little about him and his hand, without making rash assumptions I am guessing he is not in love with his hand, he is unsure what he should do so he is obviously considering 1 of 2 combinations, call out of posn or fold, or call out of position or ship (or he has gone for a pee). We dont know which decision he is split on but we can use the information later in the hand.

He flats and there is 50k in the pot the flop is all diamonds and he bets into me. I have to now ask myself why he is betting into me. I am certain it is not a bluff, its a very tough spot to bluff out of position on this flop. I can now narrow his hand to a fairly small range. I think if he has AK he shoves pre flop, I think if he has AK or AQ with the K/A d he check shoves on me so he is obviously trying to protect his hand, to me it is more of a question bet which is trying to win the hand there and then. (also remember his hesitation pre flop)

He is not a tricky player and I believe at this stage he shoves many strong hands pre flop so I think I can narrow him to AQ/AJ/ maybe as weak as AT but that is unlikely, he possibly has a set but thats so unlikely, AA or QQ shoves pre and 22 probably folds pre flop.

I therefore narrow his hand to AQ or AJ or a slim chance of air.
Let me just briefly say flat calling is 100% not an option, what are you trying to hit, it would be a huge error?

I love shoving here, he has asked a question and he will not like the answer he gets, I honestly believe he has to fold almost every holding, some players may call AQ here on a gamble but even with 2 pair what are you realistically beating when your opponent shoves, even if I am holding a bare diamond I have enough outs to make it a sweaty scenario.

Anyway the result:

The takes the clock again before a last second call with AQ. I dont hit a 7 or a diamond and he rakes a huge pot.

I actually hate his play. his lead out indicates he is asking a question and trying to protect his hand, if he is going to call a shove why not shove himself and take the difficult decisions away. As it is he fires into a pot which and compounds it with taking a gamble that he is not drawing to 6 outs and gets his chips in as only a 56/44 favorite. IF he shoves I am compelled to fold every hand apart from a set/flopped flush or some combo of top pair and huge Diamond.

I think shoving here is a hugely profitable play for the reasons given above.

If I dont have the protection of the 7d then I think I fold a little more often but given how many times our opponent folds I still think it is profitable.

quick question m8t, was the Q kicker a diamond by any chance ?

Evo397bhp wrote:quick question m8t, was the Q kicker a diamond by any chance ?

The flop was AQ2 ddd so no, his cards were offsuit

sry m8t, my stupid flash reading for some lame reason thought the opening post said AJ2 mono, no excuse for a dumb question !

Evo397bhp wrote:sry m8t, my stupid flash reading for some lame reason thought the opening post said AJ2 mono, no excuse for a dumb question !

No worries mate

thats like the 4th time, rick bollocked me last time...


you would think i'd learn !!

it wasnt your fault evo, Nick just confused you by trying to break my longest post record with his explanation

Yes but mine was constructive, yours is just inebriated waffle

cheers, been waiting ages to use that emotty

Tart !!

for me ive got to know if he's a good player or not - if he is im 100% all in here. If he's a bit of a muppet then he can have the pot, as he's not likely to fold a bare ace, and i dont want to flip for my stack at this point.

Easy fold IMO.

His play isnt SO bad, is it? Your raise pre isnt massive, it's still inviting action, so he's taken some time to think about whether his hand is good enough to repot you, and I quite like the flat call pre-flop. Why would you think he would shove pre for 40BB? You dont say what the BB's stack was, was there any risk of HIM pushing all-in to squeeze? With the call, there is no real damage done. You don’t know where you are in the hand but he has called the 17k so you have to put him on something.

In the cutoff, your raising range is huge, but the odds of you flopping the flush with suited hole cards are 118/1, so post-flop he's probably asking himself how likely it is that you just happened to make that raise with two diamonds? The best diamond hands you can have are KJ, K10, J10, all scary, all in your raising range for sure, and he knows you've probably raised with something decent, but the chances are it just wasn't two diamonds, and 118 times out of 119 you wont have made that flush. I like those odds, and also the fact he led out. You say he's not a tricky player, so you can assume he's hit the flop, but you dont know how hard.

Yes, he was asking a question of you. And he got an answer. Your shove could either mean you want to knock him off the hand, or you think you can get paid off. But how likely is it going to be the latter, given the odds above? Even with single diamond in your hand (if he thinks you have one) your odds of outdrawing him are 3/1 or so - so assuming he's right about being ahead it isnt that hard a call for him.

If he's chipped up I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he cant be completely stupid. It all rather depends on what confrontations you have had with this player previously, but in his position I might have more worries if you simply flat call his bet on the flop. If you had a made flush, would you push, or would you let him keep betting into you for at least another street? Would you be THAT worried that the board would pair? Even if you actually had the flush he is a 5/1 chance to boat up by the river - I know he doesnt have those odds - but your push probably tells him you havent got the goods and his two pair is good. If he's wrong, he has an outside chance of catching up, but since it's unlikely he's behind, he'd probably settle for that. Wouldnt you?

Hi ascot, and to the forum - nice first post!

One thing i will say tho is that i dont think anyone mentioned that oppo should of shoved pre - the oppos bad play is betting that much into the flop, he can just shove here and save himself a big decision if he's going to call anyway.

Sorry disagree with many of your points Ascot but am just going away for a couple of days so will respond when I return.

hmmm

I cant see oppo folding AQ in this spot, tho i think he's played it badly. A good move by Nick, the only realistic problem was him having AQ.. and he did. just ul timing.