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Grab a coffee if your going to read this, paper done for someone who asked for use of stats in pre flop shove/call Situations.
The theory of Tournaments and the logic behind raises based on player stats.
You will need Hold’em Manager, Poker Tracker or Poker office for any stats to make sense, the fit or fold theory on the other hand makes sense without stats.
First lets all suck some eggs!
The principle behind a freezout poker tournament is to outlast your opponents, this is the only path to winning!, simple enough yes? So by this very nature we can say that the whole game is one of choices, to play a hand or not, and this makes it binary where a “0” is fold and “1” is play (stay with me here), re-buy or cash games are not binary for the reason that you may make a play purely on the fact that you can or will re-buy.
If we now assume that the freezout game is binary then we also have to assume that Logic is our friend, due to logic being the only applicable solution to a binary question. We base our logic on past events helped by tracking software, the reason for point this out I hope will become clear further on.
By the use of a weighted analysis (whole different subject) we can argue a cause for poker being a game of skill rather than luck, the exact values are open to debate, for the use here and my own personal view, we are going to take 70/30 as the figure. The main error players make is to confuse the 30% luck with probability, now by it’s very nature “luck” means an unlikely event happening against the odds of probability e.g.
Take 7d7s onto a board of Ts 4 d2 c 9c against villain QcJc, while the villain needs to improve he is looking at the daddy: a 23 outer. Would you shove here? Then claim he got lucky? Sounds a silly example I know, but be honest how many times have you seen the 77 shove here then moan at “the fish, getting lucky”. If we break this down to logic, then logic says the 77 should not shove, and logic says the JQ should call any shove, bet or re-raise. The point here is that the winning of the hand by JQ would be down to probability and NOT luck.
That all said time to move onto the point of this paper, the reasoning logic to call based on past play and stats to being shoved on pre-flop to you opening bets pre-flop.
For the following examples, all are based on a none turbo, full ring game at the 200/400 50 ante blind level:
Stats quoted in brackets are % of: voluntary put in pot Vpip; Pre-flop raises PFR, called open raise CO. And take the form of example (19/12/6) where known.
Your stack is 9500 and Villain stack is 9500 you have both seen 100 hands at this table together.
1) Your image is TAG/NITTY (6/6/0) way to tight for this stage and is more akin to early levels; your villain is TAG (15/10/5). UTG through to MP (middle pos) you QQ open for 2.5x (1000) making a 2100 pot with blinds an ante’s, Villain Shoves. This should be a FOLD by you. Reasons being villain is not loose his stats suggest a TAG player but more to the point he will know your range is small in this position, his holding Logic dictates AQs, AKo, AKs, KK, AA, reason being why would he risk his tournament life, when thus so far he has avoided doing so vs. a TAG Nitty player that has only ever shown or played the top 6% of his cards, Logic here defines his range, FOLD. The counter here is he knows your NITTY and shoves 77 but his past actions says that this is slim at best and certainly not worth your tournament seat to find out.
2) Your image is TAG (13/9/3), your villain (48/1/55) typical lagtard station caller, you open again 2.5x bb (1000) in MP, villain shoves from the BTN, no while this guy will play a 43% range which is wide to say the least and you want this station gone (how often ya thought that) his raising range is 1%! That equates to AA, KK, over a 100 hands this guy must have had AJ, AQ, 88 etc and only ever called a raise or limped, why would his style now change when you have opened for 2.5x bb? It won’t is the answer, so again logic say FOLD
3) Your image is SOLID TAG (15/15/3) you have just been in BB v SB spot where you checked down ATo on a board of QJT23 v SB limp pre to take the pot, villain is TWATARD (61/3/65) UTG+2 limps, folds to you on BTN TT you re-raise 4xBB (1600) pot now 3100, villain shoves, now lets think on this, villain raises 6% of range, he limped so we can remove AA,KK,AK,JJ,TT (as we have TT so probability says so) and 99, he plays 61% of range less 6% raise range and has a 65% raise call range, i.e. 65% of 59% (65% vpip – 6% PFR) what this leaves us is his top (but excluding the top 6%) of hands, now we apply logic, yes it could be AA trap this type of player likes this move to feel superior to others (wrong!) but other than the monster trap what we are more likely facing is a hand that is scared to see a flop, chances are he has not paid your style much attention through the 100 hands other than the last hand of AT where you checked down, he missed the fact you was against another TAG in that hand, so on balance here we are facing A6+, 22 –99 ranges, so we beat 8 hands dead, we dominate to a 1 card out 5 more, and race against AJ and AQ (no AK as that’s in his 6% raise range) . Logic says we CALL
NOTE HERE: I would call a shove in this situation with hands down to 55 (why I was called a fish so many times! PMSL)
4) Your image is LAG (30/24/
, your villain is SOLID (18/14/0 ), in middle position JJ you open 3x bb, next seat calls PLEB (65/0/0) villain CO shoves, this is more tricky, 1st off we can ignore PLEB this guy just wants flops and has read a tad about position in poker, the villain on the other hand is a trouble, he’s running only 18% hands and 14% raise this should mean with a raise and call we can put his range down to AA,KK,QQ BUT and that’s a big BUT this guy understands probability and pot odds, what has he seen, a LAG open for 3x bb standard for 24% of range, and a PLEB call, this players ability may shove AA for value and pot size, but more likely 3bet trying to take Mr PLEB along for the ride, so what would he shove?, interestingly his range here tend to widen AT+ and 66+ this puts us in really what is a coin flipper, with a pot of 13000 and our stack of 7900 and implied odds from PLEB of 20900 that’s close to 3:1 on 4th best hand, against villain we crush 5 hands, we race 2 x 1 over card hands, and flip 2 x 2card over’s and get crushed by 3 hands, lets take PLEB for a second, Logic (well more commonsense) says he has to have high cards, broadways at the least this does not effect our hand so much as the villain draw probability, so with 4 beat and 5 races crushed by 3 . we CALL for implied odds and value.
I did do 2 other examples, LAGTARD vs. TWATARD and vs. PLEB, but lets be honest if you fall into any of these brackets then fook it 92o will do just shove eh!
Sorry for any spelling or grammatical errors, 1 type with 2 fingers !!!!!
The theory of Tournaments and the logic behind raises based on player stats.
You will need Hold’em Manager, Poker Tracker or Poker office for any stats to make sense, the fit or fold theory on the other hand makes sense without stats.
First lets all suck some eggs!
The principle behind a freezout poker tournament is to outlast your opponents, this is the only path to winning!, simple enough yes? So by this very nature we can say that the whole game is one of choices, to play a hand or not, and this makes it binary where a “0” is fold and “1” is play (stay with me here), re-buy or cash games are not binary for the reason that you may make a play purely on the fact that you can or will re-buy.
If we now assume that the freezout game is binary then we also have to assume that Logic is our friend, due to logic being the only applicable solution to a binary question. We base our logic on past events helped by tracking software, the reason for point this out I hope will become clear further on.
By the use of a weighted analysis (whole different subject) we can argue a cause for poker being a game of skill rather than luck, the exact values are open to debate, for the use here and my own personal view, we are going to take 70/30 as the figure. The main error players make is to confuse the 30% luck with probability, now by it’s very nature “luck” means an unlikely event happening against the odds of probability e.g.
Take 7d7s onto a board of Ts 4 d2 c 9c against villain QcJc, while the villain needs to improve he is looking at the daddy: a 23 outer. Would you shove here? Then claim he got lucky? Sounds a silly example I know, but be honest how many times have you seen the 77 shove here then moan at “the fish, getting lucky”. If we break this down to logic, then logic says the 77 should not shove, and logic says the JQ should call any shove, bet or re-raise. The point here is that the winning of the hand by JQ would be down to probability and NOT luck.
That all said time to move onto the point of this paper, the reasoning logic to call based on past play and stats to being shoved on pre-flop to you opening bets pre-flop.
For the following examples, all are based on a none turbo, full ring game at the 200/400 50 ante blind level:
Stats quoted in brackets are % of: voluntary put in pot Vpip; Pre-flop raises PFR, called open raise CO. And take the form of example (19/12/6) where known.
Your stack is 9500 and Villain stack is 9500 you have both seen 100 hands at this table together.
1) Your image is TAG/NITTY (6/6/0) way to tight for this stage and is more akin to early levels; your villain is TAG (15/10/5). UTG through to MP (middle pos) you QQ open for 2.5x (1000) making a 2100 pot with blinds an ante’s, Villain Shoves. This should be a FOLD by you. Reasons being villain is not loose his stats suggest a TAG player but more to the point he will know your range is small in this position, his holding Logic dictates AQs, AKo, AKs, KK, AA, reason being why would he risk his tournament life, when thus so far he has avoided doing so vs. a TAG Nitty player that has only ever shown or played the top 6% of his cards, Logic here defines his range, FOLD. The counter here is he knows your NITTY and shoves 77 but his past actions says that this is slim at best and certainly not worth your tournament seat to find out.
2) Your image is TAG (13/9/3), your villain (48/1/55) typical lagtard station caller, you open again 2.5x bb (1000) in MP, villain shoves from the BTN, no while this guy will play a 43% range which is wide to say the least and you want this station gone (how often ya thought that) his raising range is 1%! That equates to AA, KK, over a 100 hands this guy must have had AJ, AQ, 88 etc and only ever called a raise or limped, why would his style now change when you have opened for 2.5x bb? It won’t is the answer, so again logic say FOLD
3) Your image is SOLID TAG (15/15/3) you have just been in BB v SB spot where you checked down ATo on a board of QJT23 v SB limp pre to take the pot, villain is TWATARD (61/3/65) UTG+2 limps, folds to you on BTN TT you re-raise 4xBB (1600) pot now 3100, villain shoves, now lets think on this, villain raises 6% of range, he limped so we can remove AA,KK,AK,JJ,TT (as we have TT so probability says so) and 99, he plays 61% of range less 6% raise range and has a 65% raise call range, i.e. 65% of 59% (65% vpip – 6% PFR) what this leaves us is his top (but excluding the top 6%) of hands, now we apply logic, yes it could be AA trap this type of player likes this move to feel superior to others (wrong!) but other than the monster trap what we are more likely facing is a hand that is scared to see a flop, chances are he has not paid your style much attention through the 100 hands other than the last hand of AT where you checked down, he missed the fact you was against another TAG in that hand, so on balance here we are facing A6+, 22 –99 ranges, so we beat 8 hands dead, we dominate to a 1 card out 5 more, and race against AJ and AQ (no AK as that’s in his 6% raise range) . Logic says we CALL
NOTE HERE: I would call a shove in this situation with hands down to 55 (why I was called a fish so many times! PMSL)
4) Your image is LAG (30/24/
, your villain is SOLID (18/14/0 ), in middle position JJ you open 3x bb, next seat calls PLEB (65/0/0) villain CO shoves, this is more tricky, 1st off we can ignore PLEB this guy just wants flops and has read a tad about position in poker, the villain on the other hand is a trouble, he’s running only 18% hands and 14% raise this should mean with a raise and call we can put his range down to AA,KK,QQ BUT and that’s a big BUT this guy understands probability and pot odds, what has he seen, a LAG open for 3x bb standard for 24% of range, and a PLEB call, this players ability may shove AA for value and pot size, but more likely 3bet trying to take Mr PLEB along for the ride, so what would he shove?, interestingly his range here tend to widen AT+ and 66+ this puts us in really what is a coin flipper, with a pot of 13000 and our stack of 7900 and implied odds from PLEB of 20900 that’s close to 3:1 on 4th best hand, against villain we crush 5 hands, we race 2 x 1 over card hands, and flip 2 x 2card over’s and get crushed by 3 hands, lets take PLEB for a second, Logic (well more commonsense) says he has to have high cards, broadways at the least this does not effect our hand so much as the villain draw probability, so with 4 beat and 5 races crushed by 3 . we CALL for implied odds and value.I did do 2 other examples, LAGTARD vs. TWATARD and vs. PLEB, but lets be honest if you fall into any of these brackets then fook it 92o will do just shove eh!
Sorry for any spelling or grammatical errors, 1 type with 2 fingers !!!!!
Last edited by Evo397bhp on Mon May 24, 2010 3:47 pm; edited 1 time in total
I will be investing n that then
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